Prediction of Rice Production in Jember Regency Using Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)


Abduh Riski(1*); Novia Ayu Putriana(2); Firda Fadri(3); Ahmad Kamsyakawuni(4); Agustina Pradjaningsih(5); Kiswara Agung Santoso(6); Merysa Puspita Sari(7);

(1) Universitas Jember
(2) Universitas Jember
(3) Universitas Jember
(4) Universitas Jember
(5) Universitas Jember
(6) Universitas Jember
(7) Universitas Jember
(*) Corresponding Author

  

Abstract


Jember Regency is the fourth largest rice-producing regency/city in East Java, so Jember Regency dramatically contributes to increasing the agricultural sector in East Java Province. However, the level of rice production can fluctuate, which is influenced by other factors such as rainfall. A prediction system is needed to anticipate a decrease in rice production. This research aims to predict rice production in the Jember Regency using the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), highlighting the impact of key variables like rainfall, harvested area, and land productivity. This research consists of three stages: training, testing, and prediction. The input variables used in this research are rainfall (mm), harvested area (Ha.), and land productivity (Kw/Ha.), while the output variable is rice production (tons). The membership functions used are generalized Bell and Gaussian, with several combinations of many membership functions. The best model obtained from this research is a model that uses generalized bell membership functions with three membership functions for rainfall variables and two membership functions for harvest area and land productivity variables. The epoch (iteration) used to achieve minimum error is 100 epochs. The best model achieved high accuracy, producing a MAPE value of 0.080% in training and 1.525% in testing, indicating its strong potential for reliable agricultural production forecasting. The predicted amount of rice production in Jember Regency in 2024 was 922,136.8317 tons.


Keywords


ANFIS; Prediction; Rice Production

  
  

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doi  https://doi.org/10.33096/ilkom.v17i3.2797.262-275 		  

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Copyright (c) 2025 Abduh Riski, Novia Ayu Putriana, Firda Fadri, Ahmad Kamsyakawuni, Agustina Pradjaningsih, Kiswara Agung Santoso, Merysa Puspita Sari

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